The Census says Democrats are Screwed.
Conventional wisdom says that demographic trends hurt the Republicans – growing minority populations combined with an influx of immigrants will eat away at the votes Republicans can muster until the real choice for president gets made in the Democratic primaries rather than the general election.
However, there is more to demographics than just overall numbers.
Take, for instance, California and Texas – both states with growing minorities and a lot of electoral votes. Michael Barone of the Washington Examiner notes that Texas’ overall population is growing at twice the national average, while California is growing at only half the national average. This means that Texas will gain 4 electoral votes, while California will get nothing. Barone ascribes the difference between the two states to be primarily in terms of their public policy – Texas has low taxes and little government interference, while California has high Taxes and a LOT of “services”.
Curious to see if this could be extended to other states, I went to The Census Bureau website and checked a few States out for myself. Now while most are around the national average, the outliers do seem to fall more into the same division as California and Texas. Arizona and Florida, for example, are exploding, while New York and Illinois are relatively stagnant. And on average, the ones that are growing are fiscally conservative, low tax, Republican leaning states.
All of which makes Pelosi’s “flyover country” something not to be so lightly dismissed come 2012.