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Yes, Brown IS Just the Tip of the Iceberg

January 21, 2010

When Brown took Kennedy’s vacant Massachusetts seat defeating the democrat everyone expected to inherit it, republicans started saying that it was a referendum on current Democratic rule and that we could expect plenty of other upsets from the 2010 elections. While it is unlikely that the Democrats will lose their majority – at least right away – they ARE looking at having their majority whittled down to the nubs.

Consider the following races – these are the last bids on the Republican candidate as shown in INTRADE.com. All are currently democratically held:

Arkansas – 50 cents on the dollar (the bid and ask price are both in the 60’s).
Colorado – 64 cents on the dollar
Delaware – 59 cents (the current Senator is retiring)
Nevada (Harry Reid’s seat) – 67 cents
North Dakota – 87.5 cents (the current Senator is retiring)
Pennsylvania – 58 cents.

These prices are similar to odds – anything greater than 50% suggests that it is more likely than not to go that way – at least that’s how the smart money is betting. And that’s SIX seats that are likely to go to the Republicans in 2010, which drops the Dem’s nine seat majority to three. NONE of the Republican seats is similarly endangered. I didn’t include Illinois because it is leaning democratic, but even it is not safe – it’s last transaction was at 45 cents on the dollar.

Of course, those odds are likely to change – but if the economy goes sour in the next few months (and that IS a distinct possibility according to more than one pundit) – it could easily tip even MORE senate seats into the mix.

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From → politics

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